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Explanation Probability Calculation poker: odds / pot odds
Calculating your odds isn’t an unimportant factor in poker, you can’t chance them, but calculating them can bring profit over a longer period of time.
You can calculate your odds in many different ways, it’s also important to calculate them quickly
When can you calculate your odds and when can you apply this?You can immediately calculate your odds as you sit down at a pokertable, before you even get your cards, for example, you start a game of poker with some friends. With yourself, you’re with 10 people. You’re playing a Sit&Go tournament and continue until someone wins, with a simple calculation you an already calculate your chance to win.
If 10 players play, and there’s always 1 winner, there’s a 100% chance that someone wins, so 100:10 is 10, everyone has 10% chance to win. A simple calculation that shows your odds before you even start.
This was just to show you how it works, now we’ll take it one step further and I’ll tell you how you can apply this during poker.
We know there’re 52 cards in a single deck, if you need an Ace of Clubs, you have 52 to 1 chance to get one, which is about 2%.
52 cards is 100%, so calculate 100/52 (1,923%)
The chance to get an Ace of clubs is thus very low, but this counts for everyone else, too, and for all other cards as well.
At Texas Hold ‘em you always get 2 cards, so you get another chance at that ace of clubs.
There are now only 51 cards in the game, increasing your odds by a very small amount, 51 : 1. 1,96% chance to get it, about 2% chance again.
So you have about 4% chance to get a specific card with two cards. What’s this useful for? Not too much, but now you know how to calculate those odds.
Let’s apply this in a game of poker now.
Dealer deals: you’re in luck, you got pocket ace of hearts and nine of hearts.
First, you decide if you want to play or fold, it’s always vital to know when to do either. What’s a good hand? Look HERE for more information.
In this case, we continue playing, the flop comes around:
You have a chance on a flush now, with ace high, but how big is that chance?
Like we know, a deck of 52 cards has 4 suits and 13 values, which means there are 13 hearts in a game, four of them are already in play, 13-4 is nine, so you have 9 chances on a heart with a deck of 47 cards.
47 cards is 100%
9 chances (called outs in poker) on a Heart
So 100/47= 2,12, times 9 outs equals 19.14% chance on a random pair of hearts, so you have 19% chance to get one on the turn
Of course, after the turn comes the river.
46 cards is 100% now
9 chances(outs)on a Heart (Assuming no hearts were dropped on the turn)
100/46 = 2,17% times nine outs = 19,57%.
So after the flop, you have 19,14% + 19,57% = 38.71% chance on a flush, this means if you gamble on it 100 times you’ll get it right 39 times on average.
To calculate the quickly: Divide the remaining cards by 100%, times your outs. So if you want to calculate your chance on a specific card use that calculation.
Pot odds
With poker, winning is very important, but just as important is what you win compared to what you can lose, from here, you can make a calculation to see your odds to win or lose an amount of cash.
Let’s use the above game again.
The pot is 6$
Your opponent raised after the flop by 2$
What’s smart to do, calling or folding?
You know you’ll win 39x of the 100 on average.
You know you have to play $2 to win $6, what’s smart to do?
If you do this a 100 times:
100x2$ is $200,(your bet), you win back 2 dollar 39 times, so $78.
100 x 6$= 600$ (opponents bet), you win back 6 dollar 39 times, so $234.
234$ + 78$ = 312$, that’s an average profit of $112
Seen statistically, it’s best to call, even if your chance is only 39%, but because of the bet you have more to win than to lose. You win 3x as much as you lose, so your odds are 39%, pot odds are 33%
If the chance to get a card(odds) is higher than the rate for your bet to the pot, it’s better to play!
Click here for an overview outs : pot odds
This calculation also works in reverse, if you think you know which cards the opponent has, you can make the pot odds turn against him.
I hope it’s clear now, if there are any further questions, please ask it on the forum.
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